The Effectiveness of Profiling from a National Security Perspective

March 2009

by:
Jimmy Bourque, Ph.D.
Stefanie LeBlanc, M.A.
Anouk Utzschneider, M.Sc.
Christopher Wright, M.A.

The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Canadian Human Rights Commission or the Canadian Race Relations Foundation

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Researchers:
Jimmy Bourque
Stefanie Renee LeBlanc
Anouk Utzschneider
Christopher Wright
Guylaine Doucet
Samuel LeBlanc

Authors:
Jimmy Bourque
Stefanie Renee LeBlanc
Anouk Utzschneider
Christopher Wright

Science Editors:  
Me Roseline Alric
Dr. Éric Beauregard
Me Judy Begley
Frédéric Diaz
Me Johanne Landry
Dr. Luc Morin
Me Thomas P. Walsh

Language Editors:
Katherine Pérusse

Coordinators:  
Jimmy Bourque
Gaëtane Goguen

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
Summary

Summary of the issue
Methodology framework
Behavioural profiling
Geographic profiling
Prospective profiling
Judgment in uncertainty
General conclusion
Recommendations

List of acronyms

1. Introduction

1.1 Summary of the issue
1.2 Objective
1.3 Plan

2. Methodological framework 

2.1 Research sources and criteria 

2.1.1 Document origin 
2.1.2 Year of document publication 
2.1.3 Type of document 
2.1.4 Language of publication 

2.2 Keywords 
2.3 Document classification 

2.3.1 Subject treatment 
2.3.2 Approach 
2.3.3 Country 
2.3.4 Profiling criteria 
2.3.5 Type of intervention targeted 

2.4 Analysis criteria

2.4.1 Level of evidence 
2.4.2 Strength of evidence 

3. Behavioural profiling 

3.1 Background and definition 
3.2 The practice of behavioural profiling 

3.2.1 Who are the profilers? 
3.2.2 The practice of behavioural profiling 
3.2.3 International use of profiling 

3.3 Theoretical framework 

3.3.1 Homicides 
3.3.2 Sex crimes 
3.3.3 Arson 
3.3.4 Terrorism 

3.4 Criticism of existing models 
3.5 Empirical support 

3.5.1 General evaluations
3.5.2 Homicides 
3.5.3 Sexual assault 
3.5.4 Arson 
3.5.5 Burglary 

3.6 Admissibility in court 

3.6.1 Admissibility criteria 
3.6.2 Profiling before the courts 
3.6.3 Implications 

3.7 Conclusions 

3.7.1 Summary 
3.7.2 Limits 
3.7.3 Recommendations 

4. Geographic profiling 

4.1 Theoretical framework 

4.1.1 Routine activity theory 
4.1.2 Crime pattern theory 
4.1.3 Rational choice theory 

4.2 Application 
4.3 Empirical support 

4.3.1 Reduction of the search area 
4.3.2 Accuracy 
4.3.3 Heuristics versus software 
4.3.4 Limits 

4.4 Conclusions 

4.4.1 Summary 
4.4.2 Limits 
4.4.3 Recommendations 

5. Prospective profiling 

5.1 Context 
5.2 Definitions 
5.3 Fundamental assumptions 
5.4 Limits to the applicability of the actuarial model 
5.5 General evaluation of the potential of prospective profiling 
5.6 Empirical support 

5.6.1 Anti-drug trafficking effort 
5.6.2 Fight against terrorism 
5.6.3 Evaluation of recidivism risk 
5.6.4 Prevention of school shootings

5.7 Conclusions

5.7.1 Summary
5.7.2 Limits
5.7.3 Recommendations

6. Judgment in uncertainty

6.1 Definitions
6.2 The two cognitive systems
6.3 Cognitive biases
6.4 Application to the study of profiling

7. General conclusion
References

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